Stop growth now

by Arie Kamphorst

Contents
1. Why this blog (21 July 2008)
2. Consolation to Mother Earth (23 July 2008)
3. Paradise regained (25 July 2008)
4. The G8 (30 July 2008)
5. The Doha Conference (4 August 2008)
6. A blessing in disguise (12 August 2008)
7. The illusion of progress (15 August 2008)
8. False prophets (18 August 2008)
9. Wishful thinking (19 August 2008)
10.Ignorance (25 August 2008)
11.The rich and the poor (5 September 2008)
12.Nuclear energy (7 September 2008)
13.Renewable energy sources (15 September 2008)
14.Enough is enough (16 September 2008)
15.Traffic-jams (25 September 2008)
16.Witch-hunting (26 September 2008)
17.The credit crisis (13 October 2008)
18. Economic stability (21 October 2008)
19. Consumerism and producerism (29 October 2008)
20. Minerals (13 November 2008)
21. Water (24 November 2008)
22. Fish (30 November 2008)
23. Space (30 November 2008)
24. Nature (30 November 2008)
25. Basic instincts (16 December 2008)

1. Why this blog

In 2008 the Club of Rome celebrated its 40th anniversary. They published their first report under the title "Limits to Growth" in 1972. The report contained a warning that a continuing growth of the world economy and world population would in the end lead to the depletion of fossil energy sources and other raw materials, food shortages and pollution of the environment. For a while the world was shocked, but this did not last for long. Soon the emphasis of economists and politicians alike returned to fullout efforts to increase production, consumption, trade, incomes and job opportunities. The Club of Rome had made the mistake of a too specific prediction of the time-space in which the calamities would take place. This gave producers and consumers alike an opportunity to cast doubt on its report.

After wasting 40 years, we are now confronted with the first signs of the predicted shortages. The prices of food, raw materials and energy are rising. Moreover, it appears that we have been polluting the atmosphere with too high concentrations of carbondioxide and other greenhouse gasses. Again, producers and consumers are playing down the seriousness of the problems and are suggesting that there are easy solutions. Agricultural scientists try to make us believe that more technology will solve the food crisis and reactor technologists assure us that the latest types of nuclear reactors are absolutely safe, durable and clean. Wishfull thinkers as human beings are, they are keen to believe them. All that people want in the developed world is to continue their comfortable lives without feeling guilty and in the poor countries to attain the same level of wealth as the inhabitants of the rich countries. Even worse is that politicians and the media tend to participate in this wishful thinking, afraid as they are of a loss of voters, readers, listeners and viewers.

The most effective contributions to the solution of these world problems would be to stop the growth of the economy, especially in the rich countries, and of the world population. As long as there is a taboo on proposals in this direction, there will be no long-term solution. People who recognise this feel helpless and angry. It is difficult for them to express those feelings, as hardly anybody wants to listen. That is why I have invited the angry poet Horst Kamparie to publish a poem in this blog. Don't be afraid to read it, as it has a happy end. Here follows the poem.
(21 July 2008)

2. Consolation to Mother Earth

Oh, glorious Mother Earth,
Queen of the Universe,
what happens to your grace ?
What busy bugs are swarming on your face,
soiling its perfection,
spoiling its complexion ?

Oh, gorgeous Mother Earth,
who sent this cruel curse
to you who did not sin,
those creatures crawling in your skin,
destroying with brutality
its health and its vitality ?

Don't worry, Mother Earth !
The pest may still get worse,
but has not come to stay.
It will soon fade away,
starving due to food depletions,
suffocating in excretions.

Thereafter, Mother Earth,
your skin will find rebirth,
beneath new hats of snow and ice
and lucent veils of cloudy skies,
with sparkling blue of seas
and lustrous green of trees,
with subtle hues of rock and sand
and flower shows in pasture land.

And finally, Mother Earth,
belle of the Universe,
you will regain your place
as beauty queen in space,
facing your solar father
and lunar son
in serenity
into eternity.

Horst Kamparie, 23 July 2008.

3. Paradise regained

Many readers may not have discovered the promised happy end of Horst Kamparie's poem. They will have read how the earth will survive the attack by the human species, but that is no consolation for those who believe in the future of humanity. Our poet explained to me that this is a misinterpretation of what he wrote. It is true that humanity as a pest will fade away, but this does not mean that the human species will disappear altogether. After a period of climatic changes, flooding, starvation, mass migrations, territorial conflicts and wars, some people may survive somehow. They will get an opportunity to make a fresh start in an environment that will gradually recover from the onslaught of our destructive civilisation. In that environment the earth may be so thinly populated that there will be no lack of space, food and shelter. Hence there will be no property rights, no national boundaries and no competition for the possession of scarce materials.

In fact, the new world may look like the paradise described in holy books such as the koran and the bible. I am convinced that these descriptions are based on collective memories of a once existing happier world. Of course, it cannot be true that Adam and Eve were the only people living in that world. In that case, their only surviving son Kain would not have succeeded in finding a wife for the conception of their grandson Henoch. Still, the world must have been so thinly populated that people were hardly aware of each others existence. There was plenty of nature around them, which provided them with unlimited and sustainable amounts of food and other essential commodities.

Paradise must have existed until a rising population density forced people to invent agriculture, animal husbandry, villages and towns. From then onwards phenomena like land properties and grazing rights came into existence. These had to be established and defended, which gave rise to personal and communal conflicts. That must have been the cause of people losing their innocence, as is symbolised by Eve eating an apple from the tree of the distinction between good and evil.

So, the poem has a happy ending after all. Of course, that can be no compensation for all the misery humanity will experience before paradise is regained. Perhaps there are ways to find a new paradise without going through all that suffering. The remaining part of this blog will deal with these possibilities.

(25 July 2008)

4. The G8

Recently, the club of the eight most powerful industrialised countries held its annual meeting. The concluding declaration of this meeting contained some very important and at the same time very surprising statements.

First of all, the representatives of the eight countries expressed their grave concern about the rapid climatic changes. They recognised that something had to be done about this by reducing the emission of carbondioxyde into the atmosphere. To show how very concerned they were, they agreed that the CO2-emission had to be reduced by 50% over a period of 42 years, which is probably too little and too late. Moreover, the declaration gave no indication of how this reduction should be brought about. Considering the fact that China, India and many other developing countries refuse to slow down the growth of their economies, the prospects for this ambition are not bright.

Another grave concern of the eight countries is that the growth of the world economy is slowing down, due to the rising shortages and prices of oil. Unfortunately, the most important oil producing countries, apart from Russia, were not invited at the conference. However, it was agreed that pressure should be put on these countries to increase the oil production.
Surprisingly, the manifest gave no indication of how the CO2-emission can be decreased while at the same time the production and consumption of oil is increased. It is clear that the growth of the world economy, which is happening at present, is considered more important than the climatic change, which will have its most devastating effects only in future.

(30 July, 2008)

5. The Doha Conference

The conference between the economically developed countries and the developing countries, which ended on 30 July 2008, reached no agreement on the question of import restrictions and export subsidies. The conference was initiated by the World Trade Organisation (WTO) to promote free trade and liberate world markets.

In view of the problem of climatic change, it may be just as well that no agreements were reached. Globalisation of trade leads to the unnecessary large-scale transport of bulk-goods, for which much energy and CO2-emission is needed. It would be better if countries try as much as possible to be self-sufficient in the production of the necessities for their populations, instead of trying to conquer remote markets.

India was the country that took the lead in the opposition against the abolishment of import restrictions. I have worked and lived in that country from 1964 to 1971 and I am happy to see that it is continuing a long standing policy. During my stay in India, the country managed to eradicate famine by increasing its agricultural production. At the same time, it imposed high import duties on western industrial products. For luxury goods, such as cars, air conditioners and fridges, these import duties were 100 % or more. In the meantime, its own industrial production was strongly promoted. In doing so, India has hardly any foreign debts and is now producing even its own cars, aeroplanes and satellites.

Poor countries should take India as an example for their own development. Instead of producing cattle-fodder and bio-fuels for the rich countries, they should use their soils to become self-supporting in food and other basic requirements. To make this possible, their farmers must be protected against the distribution of cheap food from foreign aid and against the dumping of subsidised agricultural products from rich countries. The present policy of the World Bank in lending money to poor countries has the opposite effect. This money is not used for the improvement of agriculture but for subsidies on food supplies for city dwellers. Much of the money is also diverted to the import of luxury goods by rich people. This is promoted by the fact that the World Bank forces these countries to lift import restrictions.

If the export of subsidised agricultural products would be stopped in the richer countries, land would become available there for the cultivation of other crops. Then these countries could even grow themselves the fodders for their cattle and the raw materials for bio-fuels. Imports should be restricted to the essential goods that they can not produce themselves.
A regionalised economy, as proposed here, would also make the world a more diversified and interesting place to live in than a globalised economy.

(4 August 2008)

6. A blessing in disguise

What the Club of Rome has predicted, is happening now. Food and other essential materials are becoming scarce and expensive. Transportation of such goods adds to the increase of the prices, because oil is becoming a scarce and expensive commodity too.
The price increases are disastrous for the poorest people. As they were not responsible for the overconsumption, they should be compensated by a redistribution of incomes. Provided that this takes place, the oil crisis can be considered as a blessing in disguise. Thanks to the rising prices of oil, many forms of transport are becoming too expensive, leading to a lower growth of the oil consumption and of the emission of CO2. In the USA people are replacing their big SUV's for smaller European and Japanese cars and air companies are cutting down on the number of inland flights. It is expected in the Netherlands that the annual number of plane movements on Amsterdam Airport will decrease with ten thousand in the coming year. All over Europe fish is becoming expensive and fishing boats are being laid off, which may lead to less overfishing of the seas and oceans. We might even see a decrease of the cruel transport of live animals from the Netherlands to remote places all over Europe. At present, pigs are transported in overcrowded trucks from the Netherlands to Italy and returned to their native country in the form of Parma ham. As Italians are perfectly able to raise pigs and the Dutch can produce very good ham, this practise should be stopped immediately.

Governments should take their responsibilities in promoting and canalising these developments, because their citizens will do their utmost to frustrate and sabotage them. When the Dutch government imposed an ecotax on air tickets, people went to airports in neighbouring countries to fly to their holiday destinations. When the prices of diesel were rising, Portuguese fishermen blocked harbours and French truck drivers did the same with roads, demanding compensation for the rising costs from their governments. At the same time, Dutch car drivers asked for a reduction of the excise on petrol.

Instead of giving in to these demands, governments should confront their citizens with the fact that they must change their life style. People living in the quiet eastern part of the Netherlands and employed in the industrialised western part of the country should be stimulated to live nearer to their work. It would save a lot of fuel and at the same time would terminate the overcrowding of roads by cars, going from east to west in the morning and from west to east in the evening. To facilitate this change, the government must stimulate the building of houses in the west and the creation of jobs in the east. Similarly, the daily traffic jams on the highway between Rotterdam and Amsterdam could be ended if people living in Amsterdam and working in Rotterdam would swap houses with those living in Rotterdam and working in Amsterdam. To promote this, companies and other organisations should be forced to abolish travel allowances.

(12 August 2008)

7. The illusion of progress

When Jesus Christ died almost 2000 years ago, he left behind communes of early christians. These people tried to live in harmony with each other by agreeing that all members of the commune would "contribute according to their abilities and receive according to their needs". The communes fell apart, because most of the strongest members could not keep up this humane attitude.

In the middle of the nineteenth century, the socialistic movement tried again to adopt this very christian credo, in reaction to the fact that some people were becoming extremely rich at the expense of big masses of cheap labourers. Surprisingly, this movement was strongly opposed by the christian churches. In the communist countries, where the doctrine was imposed by force, socialism failed. The leaders had to adopt dictatorship, because people were not prepared to use their labour for the common cause.

When socialism had failed, capitalism claimed victory. Some writers even proclaimed the end of history, because capitalism would henceforth rule the world. Milton Friedman's Chicago School of Economics, which wanted to minimalize the influence of governements on the economy, conquered the earth very rapidly. Unfortunately, this neo-liberal capitalistic ideology is based on the same wrong assumption as socialism, i.c., the assumption of the altruistic nature of humans. Under this assumption, clever and enterprising people get maximum opportunities to make the world more prosperous and harmonious. In the neo-liberal version of capitalism the attitude of laissez faire laissez aller, which prevailed in the nineteenth century, was revived. The result has been a never ending increase of production and consumption. Instead of becoming more harmonious, the world has become chaotic. In the USA, where the most extreme form of neo-liberal capitalism is practised, the American dream for few people is becoming the American nightmare for many. The present credit crisis shows how capitalists in power have been filling their own pockets at the expense of the common citizens and the environment. And all over the western world people are living in luxury at the expense of cheap labour in the developing countries. Their conscience is salved by the practice of foreign aid, the most modern version of charity. In 2003 the president of Uganda said: "We want trade, not aid", because the income of the poor countries would increase by three times the amount of aid given if the rich countries would open their markets for them.

The objective of progress should be to attain harmony, amongst people as well as between people and nature. At present the goal seems to be an ever increasing economic growth, with the destruction of the environment and nature as a side-effect.
(15 August 2008)

8. False prophets

In the recent past, the economic development in the western world was strongly influenced by the confidence producers and consumers have in the future. Therefore, politicians and economists adopted the strategy of boosting this confidence. Decreases of the economic growth and job opportunities were generally presented as temporary dips and increases as the beginning of a new period of prosperity.

In the near future, economic growth will not be determined anymore by the mood of the people but by the availability of energy, water, minerals and other raw materials. Under these conditions, boosting of the confidence of producers and consumers must be avoided. To save energy and materials, and to reduce the emission of CO2, economic growth must be discouraged instead. There are no signs so far that our leaders are inclined to adopt this strategy. In refusing to do so, they have become false prophets.

A good challenge for the world leaders was offered by the changes of the price of oil in the recent past. This price had almost doubled during the past years, due to increasing shortages of oil in the world market. During the past weeks, however, the oil price came down from 147 to 115 dollar per barrel. It is tempting to conclude that this reduction marks the end of the "oil crisis", but that would be a serious mistake. The cause of the reduction was a declining demand for oil in the western world, due to a reduction of the economic growth to almost zero. In the emerging industrial countries, however, the growth was maintained at its high level of at least 7 %. Therefore, it must be expected that the price of oil and other raw materials may continue to fluctuate strongly but at the same time will gradually increase further.

It is important that people are clearly informed about this long-term expectation, so that they can adapt to the new situation of economic decline. In that way we may still hope for a soft landing of our overheated economy. Otherwise, we will be inviting social unrest, which will ultimately lead to national and international armed conflicts.
(18 August 2008)

9. Wishful thinking

There are other people who tend to ignore the seriousness of the situation. They are the journalists who take advantage of the fact that people are inclined to wishful thinking. Their publications are found mainly in the more popular and succesful newspapers and glossy magazines. Popular television programs often adopt the same attitude. Their strategy is to play down the problems or to suggest that there are easy solutions. Many recent newspaper articles, radio programs and television documentaries dealt with cars powered by electricity or hydrogen. All of these journalistic products claimed that such cars are the promise for the future, because they do not emit any CO2, while the fact was ignored that CO2-emission does not occur when electricity or hydrogen is used but when it is produced.

An interesting case of false prophecy is offered by a Dutch professor in geology. He wrote a book on geology for the general public under the title "The human scale". In this book he stated that cold glacial periods and hot interglacial periods have occurred repeatedly in the geological past and that the human species can not have any influence on that. With this message he contradicted the findings of the climatologists of the International Panel on Climatic Change, who state that the present rapid global warming is caused by human activity.

The geology professor also hackles in his book the human scale of the expected rise of the sealevel, which is at present less than a meter in the course of this century, stating that in the past 20.000 years this level has risen with tens of meters. In doing so, he ignores the fact that during that period the world was very thinly populated and that people had ample time to retreat in an almost empty hinterland. Now the world is overpopulated with human beings, the majority of whom are living in the fertile river delta's, river plains and coastal plains. Most of these lowlands are insufficiently protected by dykes. In case of calamities these people can not retreat to higher land, because that is overpopulated too. The book is a great succes in the Netherlands, probably because it soothes people's fears.

False prophets are found also in organisations trying to sell solutions. Recently, a full professor in reactor technology of one of the leading Dutch technical universities claimed that the latest models of nuclear plants are absolutely clean, durable and safe. This claim was made while the storage of nuclear waste was still an unsolved problem and while it was known that also the availability of uranium is limited. With respect to safety, a comparison should be made between nuclear reactors and passenger planes. The latter must be very safe too, because they carry hundreds of passengers. Still, it is a fact that planes crash every year, due to construction failures, lack of maintenance, human mistakes, human aggression or whims of nature. The same can happen to nuclear plants. The difference between passenger planes and nuclear plants is, however, that in the case of a nuclear accident many thousands of people may die and large regions may become uninhabitable. Still, the claim of the reactor technologist feeds the wishful thinking of the general public. The acceptance of nuclear power, which used to be very low in the Netherlands, is rising steadily.

(19 August 2008)

10. Ignorance

Wishful thinking can be described as thoughts based on unfulfilled wishes rather than proven facts. That is why it can thrive best if the "thinker" is not hindered by knowledge and understanding. It is the task of governments and the media to provide this knowledge and understanding. If they fail to do so, false prophets get a chance to feed the people with wrong and harmful information.

In the case of global warming, knowledge and understanding of the processes involved is not very easy to attain. That is why many people think that it can be stopped easily by reducing the CO2-emission. They do not understand that global warming is a function of the amount of CO2 which is already in the atmosphere due to emissions in the past. This is why global warming would continue for many decades even after we would stop emitting CO2 and other greenhouse gasses completely and immediately.
There is another reason to think that it will be very difficult to stop or even retard the global warming. This reason is that there are so-called feed-backs in the climate system. An example of such a feed-back is the influence of the "melting ice and snow". If due to the global warming ice and snow cover ever smaller areas during ever shorter periods, less sun radiation is reflected into space by these white surfaces. Therefore, more solar energy is absorbed, leading to more global warming, followed by an even faster disappearance of surfaces covered by snow and ice, still more global warming, etcetera. This "loop of reactions" can in principle take its own course, even if we would stop CO2-emissions altogether. In that case, humanity would completely loose control over the global warming and the connected climatic changes.

Another feedback is caused by the melting of the permafrost in tundra-soils. These are almost permanently frozen peat soils around the periphery of the polar ice. When the tundras melt due to global warming, these soils will emit large quantities of methane or CH4, which has a fifteen times stronger greenhouse effect than CO2. Also this process triggers a feed-back, because more CH4 in the atmosphere causes more global warming, which in turn causes more melting of permafrost, etcetera.
A potential feed-back is also caused by the methane trapped in ice at the bottom of the oceans. Due to the gradual increase of the water temperature, part of this ice will melt, releasing the methane into the water and from there into the atmosphere.

An interesting anthropogenic feedback is emerging due to the reaction of men on the melting of the ice on the Arctic Sea. All nations bordering this sea are manoeuvring for the best position to exploit the oil and gas fields in it. This exploitation will lead to more emission of CO2, followed by a faster melting of the ice, a faster exploitation, etcetera.
Many of these feedbacks were not yet introduced in the climate models of the climatologists, because it is difficult to quantify them. It is, however, certain that they do exist. That is probably one of the reasons why global warming is all the time proceeding much faster than is expected by the International Panel on Climatic Change.
It may be difficult to bring an understanding of the processes involved to the knowledge of the general public, but it has to be done. The results of a very recent enquiry in the Netherlands with 4642 respondents showed that 66% of the people are not worried at all about the effects of global warming on their environment.

(25 August 2008)

11. The rich and the poor

Some days ago, the so-called Delta Commission of the Netherlands published a plan, in which it recommended drastic measures to counteract the dangers of the expected rise of the sea level. The Commission expects that the peak discharges of the rivers will increase strongly and that the sea level will rise 140 cm during this century. To prevent flooding, the dykes along the rivers and the sea must be raised and broadened. To strengthen the dunes, huge amounts of sand must be transported from the bottom of the North Sea to the shoreline. More sweet water must be stored, to counteract the increasing intrusion of salt water, by raising the water level in a part of the IJssel Lake by as much as 1.5 meter. As a result of all these measures sluices, quays, wharfs, bunds, roads, bridges, buildings and other structures have to be adapted to the new hydrological situation. The whole operation will cost 1 to 1.5 billion euros annually during a period of hundred years. For this small country that is a huge expenditure.
The report of the Delta Commission has been received with great enthousiasm in many circles. Engineers are keen to show their ability to cope with large and complex problems and politicians are proud of the fact that their small country is again waging war against the water. Engineering firms see the project as a showcase, hoping that they will be invited to carry out similar projects in other rich countries. An example of such a rich country is the USA, where New Orleans has barely escaped a second disaster caused by a hurricane only a week ago. Only few Dutch people are sceptical, because they fear that these measures will play havoc with the natural and cultural heritage of the country.

If these proposals will be accepted, the government and the parliament will have admitted for the first time that the climatic change has become a very serious and almost insolvable problem. The reaction of the country is clearly to save its own skin and retreat behind its dykes. A reduction of the use of fossil energy will become even more difficult, as the battle against the water is nowadays carried out with heavy, oil-slorping machines.
The tragedy of this development is that the populations of poor nations will be left to their own fate. Countries such as Bangladesh, Birma or Haiti, where cyclones have played havoc before, have no money to build dykes. People on the coral islands in the Pacific Ocean will have no other choice than to evacuate their homes. The populations of Northern India and South China will suffer too, because the reliable supply of irrigation water from the Himalayan glaciers will disappear.

All those inhabitants of the poor countries will have to bear the burden of climatic changes for which they are not responsible. This does not mean, however, that the people in the rich countries will escape the consequences of their past actions altogether. They will have to build high political dykes around their borders, to keep out the streams of economic refugees fleeing from their devastated homelands. Even between European countries such dykes may have to be built, because it is clear that the desertification of southern Europe has already started.
(5 September 2008)

12. Nuclear energy

In this blog some remarks have been made already on the safety of the production of nuclear energy. It was stated that accidents may occur even in the safest nuclear plants, due to human failures, human aggression, lack of maintenance and whims of nature. This is frightening, certainly if one considers that one nuclear plant would supply only 2% of the energy requirement of a small country such as the Netherlands.
Building a nuclear plant of the latest and safest generation would cost around 5 billion euro and would take about 15 years. It is clear that this amount of money is available only in the richer countries and that the inhabitants of poor countries will have to continue the use of conventional energy sources. In that way the economical and technological gaps between the underdeveloped and the overdeveloped worlds will widen even further.
Probably it is just as well that the production of nuclear energy, if it can not be stopped, will remain in the hands of technologically developed and politically stable countries. Even in these countries accidents occur from time to time, as is shown by recent leakages of radioactive material from Italian and Japanese reactors. In the Netherlands a small reactor, which produces isotopes for medical purposes, has been put out of production for the second time, due to problems with the cooling system. According to Greenpeace, accidents occur regularly in French reactors too, but that country manages to cover up most of these occurrences.
In poor countries the quality of the construction and maintenance of nuclear plants will always be in danger, due to a lack of knowledge and funds. There the influence of corruption on building activities is always around the corner. Moreover, governments may try to use nuclear materials and knowledge for the development and production of atombombs, as might be the case at present in Iran and North-Korea. India and Pakistan are already threatening each other with nuclear weapens and Israel is confronting the Arabic countries with them.
The greatest danger is probably coming from insurgents, who may try to obtain radioactive materials for terroristic attacks. In the recent past they have shown how inventive they are. They may buy the materials from unstable countries or even steal it from nuclear plants in the developed countries. Some years ago a Doctor Khan from Pakistan showed how to obtain knowledge of nuclear technology in the Netherlands and Greenpeace demonstrated in the same country how to infiltrate a nuclear reactor with a large group of armed persons. To prevent these dangers, countries will have to be turned into police states.
The construction of nuclear plants for the production of electricity must be stopped, not only in the developing countries but also in the technologically developed world. There are better, cleaner, more durable and safer techniques for the production of energy.
(7 September 2008)

13. Renewable energy sources

If the use of nuclear plants is ruled out, the question arises how our requirements of energy can be covered by other sources. Coal and tarsands are out of the question, because the mining, transport and purification of these materials require much energy and because these activities harm the health of workers and the beauty of landscapes. Moreover, the use of these fuels pollutes the atmosphere with dust, sulphuric acid, nitric acid and other contaminants. The most important reason why the use of coal and tar should be avoided is, however, that it produces even more CO2 per unit energy than oil.

If it would not be possible anymore to switch in time to renewable energy sources, natural gas might temporarily bridge the gap between the production and the consumption of energy. Its use produces much less CO2 than oil, it contains hardly any air pollutants, its winning is more healthy for the labourers and the landscape and its extraction, transport and purification require less energy. Considerable quantities of this energy source are still available in Russia, Norway, the Netherlands, North-Africa, Irak and many other countries. It can be used directly for heating and cooking in households and for the production of electricity. In a liquid form it can be used also as a fuel for transport facilities and mechanical processes.

In the meantime, maximum efforts should be invested in the development of renewable energy sources. There is not much time left for this, as it is expected that the energy requirements of the world will rise with 45% until 2030 and that serious oil shortages will arise after 2010. The most important sustainable, safe and clean sources are those derived directly or indirectly from solar energy, e.g., solar radiation, wind power and water power. Sceptics of these energy forms state that solar energy can not be harvested during the night and that the production of wind-energy is dependent on the weather conditions. In case of temporal and regional deficiencies these supplies can, however, be supplemented by energy from hydrodynamic power, produced at dam sites or from tides and waves, or by the import of solar and aerodynamic energy produced elsewhere. For this exchange of energy between different regions, it will be necessary that electricity networks will be interconnected over large distances. In that way China could deliver solar energy to Europe during the Chinese day and vice versa, solar energy for Europe could be produced in the Sahara and electricity derived from hydrodynamic power could be delivered by Norway to other European countries.

Another possibility is to store solar and aerodynamic energy during periods of peak production and release it when this production is deficient. An interesting system for this storage was proposed some years ago in the Netherlands. It consisted of an area surrounded by dams in shallow parts of the IJssel Lake or the North Sea. During periods of high production the excess electricity is used to pump water into this bunded area, thus raising the water level in it. During periods of low production this water is released again via hydroelectric generators, thus harvesting the energy stored earlier. In the Netherlands this system might be incorporated with other plans te raise the dykes and the water level in the IJssel Lake. In other countries it can be built in any shallow lake or sea.
If one compares wind energy with solar energy, the latter must be considered by far the best alternative. It can be harvested in large parks covered by solar panels, but also by small groups of panels on houses and other buildings. Large modern wind mills spoil the landscape and give visual and accoustic hinder to people living in their surroundings. On land and at sea their sails form dangerous obstacles for birds. In seas the vibrations caused by the rotors disorientate sea mammals. Firms in Europe have started the production of small and very quiet windmills, which can be installed on the roofs of buildings and can produce half of the energy requirements of an everage household. The question remains how dangerous these small windmills are for birds. To prevent accidents the rotor blades may have to be surrounded by screens.
Also the cultivation of crops for the production of so-called bio-fuels must be stopped. These crops occupy agricultural land that would otherwise be used for the production of food and other useful commodities or for the conservation of nature. Moreover, their cultivation will require the use of fertilizers and the transport of bulk materials over large distances.
Electricity will remain by far the best carrier of energy, because it is clean and can be transported easily over large distances. It can be produced directly from all renewable energy sources such as solar, aerodynamic and hydrodynamic energy. It can be used directly for different purposes, such as lighting, heating, transport and mechanical processes. An advantage of electricity as an energy-carrier above hydrogen is also that its production, transport and use is cheaper and more efficient. Moreover, much of the required distribution system for electricity is already available in most countries.
(15 September 2008)

14. Enough is enough
Protagonists of nuclear energy state that the sustainable and clean energy sources can not produce enough energy to meet the future requirements. Such statements are generally made under the assumption that no special efforts will be made to curb the ever increasing use of energy. For instance, it is assumed that the economy will continue to grow with at least 3% in the rich countries and 7% in the developing nations. Also the continuing growth of the world population is in their view a given fact, which can not be influenced.

Other experts claim that it is possible to achieve a reduction of the energy consumption by at least 50%, merely by stopping the present waste. Many governments have already initiated programs for this purpose, varying from propaganda actions to taxation measures and subsidies. In the Netherlands these actions are still not taken with great enthousiasm and they are often too limited in scope. When the Dutch government introduced a subsidy on solar boilers about 20 years ago, many citizens bought them and firms manufacturing and installing them thrived. Fifteen years later a successive government abolished the subsidy, the firms went bankrupt and the citizens could not find a replacement for their old boilers.

Other measures that governments can take are the increase of taxes on energy-intensive production methods, accompanied by a decrease of the taxation of labour. This will cause a reduction of the use of energy, but the labour-productivity and hence the incomes of families will decrease as well. We will have to accept this if we really intend to leave behind a hospitable world for our descendents. Of course a redistribution of incomes would be necessary, to protect the people with the lowest budgets.

If all these measures would be insufficient to bring the energy consumption in balance with a renewable and sustainable production of energy, a reduction of the world population would be necessary. The most humane way to achieve this is family planning. In the rich countries this is already taking place, as a result of the emancipation of women, but in the poor countries the population growth is still too high. The promotion of family planning is difficult there, mainly due to a lack of education, emancipation of women and availability of facilities for birth control. Also traditions and religions are important impediments for family planning, as will be dicussed hereafter.
(16 September 2008)

15. Traffic-jams

In many parts of the world, traffic congestions have become an ever increasing problem. In the Netherlands, the most densely populated country in Europe, many measures have been considered to solve this problem. Stopping the growth of the population and of the economy is not one of them. A foundation advocating the gradual reduction of the Dutch population to ten million inhabitants hardly gets any attention and the government is still frantically trying to save the economic growth.

Another possibility to reduce the overcrowding of roads is the introduction of toll-gathering. Successive Dutch governments have been studying this very effective system, but none of them have dared to introduce it so far. Measures to stimulate people to live closer to their work, work at home or spread work hours are also not popular. The government has refrained from imposing such measures and has limited its actions to non-binding agreements with trade and industry. Experience has shown that such agreements are generally not followed in practice. There is also a strong opposition against increases of the excise duties on fuels and of the road tax and sales tax for cars with a high fuel consumption.

The only remaining effective solution of the problem is the improvement of public transport, which has been strongly neglected so far. In 2005 there were fewer bus connections than in 1980, due to the recent privatisation of buslines. The railway system has deteorated too, due to a lack of maintenance, and also there privatisation has had a negative effect.

The latest proposal of the government is to improve both the public transport and the road tranport. Unfortunately, no detailed plans for the public transport have been published so far, but the improvement of roads has been announced with much publicity. This improvement consists of the widening of roads at bottlenecks. Experts predict that this measure will not be effective for the solution of traffic jams, because the removal of a bottleneck in one place will create a new bottleneck elsewhere, particularly at the entrances to cities. Even if the widening of roads would be effective for the immediate disappearance of traffic congestions, it is expected that this effect will be short-lived, due to a resulting increase of the number of cars on the roads. It is clear that the government gives preference to the most popular but least effective measures.

(25 September 2008)

16. Witch-hunting

To speed up the widening of roads and other road construction works, the government has proposed a special legislation. Under this legislation such projects can be approved and executed without lengthy procedures. This means that objections by individuals or non-governmental organisations can be put aside more easily. During his announcement of these plans on television the minister of transportation said that this would prevent the endless obstruction of progress by activists dealing with the protection of the environment. This was a political statement, in which "progress" was valued more highly than conservation.

The words of the minister are supported by a proposal by a Dutch employers organisation to stop subsidising non-governmental organisations involved in the protection of the environment, because they mis-use public money for actions and legal procedures against necessary construction projects. They also called for a boycot of a lottery that gives financial support to Greenpeace. Obviously the employers do not understand that these actions and legal procedures are the only effective antidote to the propaganda of private and public enterprises, carried out with money provided by customers and tax payers.

Also in line with the words of the minister are the recent investigations by the popular press into the past of members of parliament and ministers. These politicians have been active about thirty or forty years ago in action groups with social, pacifist or "green" goals. As idealistic young people they have participated in massive demonstrations, radical actions and other extraparliamentary activities.

This belated witch hunting against politicians reminds us of the Mc.Carthy-period in the USA, when everybody with leftist sympathies was boycotted. The words of the Dutch minister of transport and the proposal of the employers to terminate subsidies, on the other hand, are more like the reaction of a former English king, who did not like to hear unfavourable reports about the losses of his army on the battlefield. Messengers delivering such reports were put in jail.
It is unfortunate that massive demonstrations by idealistic young people, as we have seen in the sixties, seventies and eighties of the twentieth century, have become rare in the Netherlands. There is enough reason for young idealists to become active again, as the emerging scarcities and climatic changes pose grave threats to the future of the world. The only occasions where big crowds of young people gather seem to be sports events, pop concerts and dance festivities. It reminds us of the dancing manias in the middle-ages, which were a reaction to the uncontrollable threats of pests and diseases.
Real actions are left to professional organisations such as Greenpeace, Friends of the Earth, Amnesty International and the World Wildlife Fund, but it seems that angry crowds can be raised only for materialistic subjects such as wages, taxes or prices.
(26 September 2008)

17. The credit crisis
Although the present credit crisis was triggered by the increases of the prices of energy, raw materials and food, its real cause is overconsumption and overproduction, particularly in the USA. People have been borrowing too much money, thinking that the economic growth would last for ever. When they could not pay anymore the interest for their mortgages and other debts, the banks lending them the money got financial problems too. Unfortunately, these banks in turn had been borrowing from other banks in other countries. That is how the crisis could spread all over the world.
According to the capitalistic doctrine of the functioning of markets, the irresponsible individuals, firms and banks went bankrupt. People with too high mortgages had to sell their houses, leaving them in debt. For young people with savings instead of debts this created opportunities to buy houses for much lower prices. Firms that had expanded too much were forced te be reorganised or sold, which created opportunities for new, inventive enterprises.
So far, the capitalistic ideology worked out as it was meant to do. The levels of consumption and production decreased and the cherished economic growth may even change to economic decline. But now see what happens. The private banks, which borrowed too much from each other and lent too much to firms and individuals, get full protection from their governments. Hundreds of billions of dollars, pounds and euros are spent by governments to support these icons of capitalism. In some cases this support consists of a downright nationalisation of banks, a move which had been considered a very detestable socialistic action in the prevailing neo-liberal ideology. The treasurers of the governments were in haste to declare that this nationalisation is only a temporary measure, as the shares will be sold again as soon as the situation in the financial world will have stabilised. In other cases the governments guaranteed the borrowing and lending between banks, in order to promote confidence and stimulate the flow of money. In both these cases a great risk is taken at the expense of the common tax-payers, who may well have to pay the bill for the overconsumption in the USA and elsewhere.
If we consider the effects of these governmental actions, the only certainty is that a continuation of activities is guaranteed for the highly-payed managers of the banks, the irresponsible middlemen selling the loans and the wizkids inventing the many complicated, tempting and dangerous financial products. The victims of this "business as usual" will again be the honest and hardworking citizens, who will have to pay sooner or later for the interventions by their governments.
The least one can hope for is that all banks will henceforth be subjected to very stern regulations and supervision. Loans and mortgages should be given only under strict financial conditions and should be judged by their social and environmental effects. Complicated "financial products" should be forbidden. Bank managers should be held financially and ethically responsible for the actions of their organisations.
The extremely high salaries and bonusses for managers of banks and multinationals should be forbidden. When the Dutch government nationalised the ABN AMRO Bank, it put a former attorney-general in overall charge of the bank for a salary which is about ten times as low as that of his predecessors. This illustrates that there is no relatioship between the quality of managers and their emoluments. Managers of banks, big companies and semi-government organisations form an incrowd, in which the maximalisation of personal incomes seems to be the main goal. It is not surprising that persons focussed so much on their own financial positions fail as managers. The big question is why institutional investors such as pension funds, which are holding most of the shares, are not stopping these excessive remunerations. Is it because they are represented in the meetings of shareholders by commissioners who will sooner or later be themselves eligible for a post as topmanager ? People who strive so much for excessive personal wealth are not fit for and worthy of being our leaders. By their bad example they promote the present materialistic attitude of our world.
It was tried in the Netherlands to stop the disproportional salaries and bonusses by voluntary agreements between big firms, but in practice this was not followed by a change of their attitude. Lateron their has been talk of a so-called Balkenende-norm, named after the present Dutch prime minister. According to this norm managers of semi-government organisations, such as the railways, the postal services, universities and hospitals, should not earn more than the prime minister. It is clear that also this norm can only be imposed by law.
All these measures would suppress the extreme consumerism and "producerism" and might even help to stop the economic growth altogether. It might thus create the necessary conditions for a gradual stabilisation of the economy.
(13 October 2008)

18. Economic stability

Economic growth is what economists and politicians have been advocating since long, in the communistic as well as in the capitalistic world. Economic decline, on the other hand, is feared like the plague in the middle-ages. The official underlying assumption is that economic growth will create the means to abolish poverty. Instead, economic growth has not prevented the rich to become richer and the poor to become poorer. The number of extremely poor people in the world is still rising steadily and has now reached almost one billion.
In between growth and decline lies stability. That is a situation in which the world is not aiming at an ever increasing production and consumption, but at a gradual replacement of harmful production processes and products by beneficial ones. The expected recession following the present credit crisis may well create the circumstances to do just that. Fossil energy sources can be replaced by renewable and clean energy. Plastics and other materials derived from oil should disappear in favour of materials that can be decomposed or recycled. Manures should be used instead of artificial fertilizers. Cars and machines powered by oil must give way to electric cars and machinery. The highly polluting traffic by aeroplanes and boats must be replaced as much as possible with transport by electric trains, busses and cars.
All these changes will cause a loss of jobs in the conventional production sectors, but will at the same time create challenging new job opportunities in the innovative sphere. In Germany, where 20% of the energy requirements is already provided by renewable resources, the production and installation of solar panels is already providing more jobs than the production of conventional cars. Also in Denmark the renewable resources provide already about 20% of the total energy consumption. There the manufacturing of windmills is a booming business. If by chance these changes would result in a net loss of jobs, work and incomes should be distributed more evenly among workers. This can be done by shortening the workday or workweek. In that way the loss of income is compensated by a gain of leisure time. After all, people do not live for work but work to live.
To bring about these changes, governments can use tools such as laws, regulations, subsidies and taxes. This must be coordinated on a world-wide scale, to prevent false competition between countries and firms. It is clear that this cannot be done under the prevailing neo-liberal ideology. Governments and international organisations such as the United Nations and the World Bank must take their responsibilities to lead the world to a better future.
(21 October 2008)

19. Consumerism and producerism
There once was a time in the Netherlands when the birth of a baby was celebrated with sugared caraway seeds on rusks. Visiters would bring some clothes for the baby, often knitted by themselves. Birthdays were commemorated with congratulations, coffee with cake and small gifts. During the Dutch Sinterklaas festival some sweets and presents were given to the children and funny poems were written for the grown-ups. Christmas was mainly a family reunion with a tasty meal cooked by the hostess and New Years Eve was celebrated with some fireworks and self-made dough-nuts.
Nowadays all these occasions are embraced as an opportunity for endless shopping. Particularly during the Sinterklaas festival in December, huge amounts of mainly plastic toys for the children and often useless presents for the grown-ups are sold in the shops. To create even more buying and selling opportunities, the Dutch have also adopted the anglo-saxon habit of offering presents under the christmas tree. The third opportunity for big spending in December is New Year's Eve, with its ever increasing orgy of fireworks.
This report was not written to suggest that the Dutch are the biggest spenders of the world, as we know that this type of overconsumption is taking place in all rich countries. The only hope for an end to this overconsumption is based on the expectation that an economic crisis will lead to a regression or even a lasting depression.
Unfortunitely, governments are still trying frantically to prevent this economic decline, as is shown by their financial support of banks and industry. They are strongly supported in this effort by all sorts of public organisations. A Dutch labour-union has even suggested that compulsary savings by employees, set aside for pensions or other important future goals, should be freed for shopping in December 2008. This is just one example to illustrate how the world is still aiming at a continuation of consumerism and producerism.
One explanation for the current materialistic attitude in the rich countries may be that only the oldest generations have experienced wars and other periods of scarcity. The younger people think that wealth is a normal condition, without realising that it is based on a destruction of their environment and on the natural and human resources of countries in other parts of the world. This can also explain why people in the rich countries waste and throw away such huge amounts of food.
At the same time, the World Wildlife Fund published a report today, dealing with the natural resources available to humanity. It is expected that in 2035 the human species would need twice the surface area of our planet to support itself on a sustainable basis. As we have only one planet earth, this will without doubt lead to a continuing destruction of the environment and depletion of resources.
(29 October 2008)

20. Minerals
It is clear that renewable energy can on the long run cover almost all the energy requirements of the world. The same is true for bulk materials used for building and construction, such as cement, iron and aluminum. Huge amounts of these are available in nature in the form of limestone, laterite and bauxite, respectively. The recent price increases of iron and alluminum were not due to a lack of availability of these raw materials but to the fact that the processing of them could not keep pace with the demand in rapidly developing countries. Still, it is important to keep in mind that the mining, processing and transport of these materials require much energy, destroy landscapes and pollute rivers and the atmosphere. Therefore, iron and alluminum must be recycled as much as possible.
Other useful minerals are not available in such abundance and structural shortages of them will occur in an ever growing world economy. Examples of such minerals are copper, zinc, manganese, silver, gold and diamond. Nations are already manoeuvring to safeguard their future requirements of these materials, which leads to serious international conflicts. An example of such a conflict is the recent invasion of the Tutsi-militia under General Laurent Nkunda into Kivu in eastern Congo. Officially, the objective of this invasion is to protect the interests of the Tutsi-minority in Eastern Congo against the Hutu-majority. The real purpose is obviously to get hold of the rich geological reserves of copper, cobalt and coltan. The latter is used for the production of mobile telephones and computers. Already these minerals, which were exploited earlier by Hutu-militia, are exported via Rwanda under the protection of General Nkunda. In return, the warlord receives modern weapons and ample money to pay his soldiers. It is not difficult to guess from where the money and the weapons are obtained, as modern weapons, computers and mobile telephones are manufactured only in rich countries.
In the meantime the Chinese government has signed an agreement with the Congolese government. Under this agreement the Chinese will invest eight billion dollars in the improvement of the Congolese economy. The exploitation of mines in different parts of Congo is a part of this agreement. Possibly the improvement of the morale and outfit of the weak Congolese army in Kivu is a less publicised ingredient of the deal. Also Russia has recently delivered combat helicopters and aeroplanes in Kinshasa, in exchange for mining concessions in the province Katanga.
To prevent further tensions, scarce minerals must be recycled on a large scale. This would help to keep a stable world economy running without international conflicts. A further reduction of the economic growth is an essential ingredient for this.
(13 November 2008)

21. Water
Water is an essential commodity for many human activities. In nature it is recycled on a large scale by evaporation and precipitation. Humans can use it for their own purposes by intercepting and conserving it during this cycle. Unfortunately, the water is not always available at all places in the desired quantities. Therefore, human activities must be adopted to shortages or excesses of water.
In deserts and semi-deserts precipitation is insufficient to support agricultural crops. Rainfall is irregular in time and space. Only nomadic animal-husbandry is possible. In the past nomads have established very intricate grazing routes, to make full use of the production capacities of the different locations. In that way they were adapted to the climatic conditions in which they lived. Lateron, modern techniques made it possible to dig deep wells for the exploitation of groundwater. The result of this has been a frustration of the nomadic grazing systems and a concentration of cattle around these water sources, causing a destruction of the natural vegetation around the wells. In many places even this situation is not durable, due to the depletion of fossil groundwater resources.
Near the deserts and semi-deserts one finds semi-arid and sub-humid regions, where it is possible to grow only one crop per year. The farmers in these areas were always dependent on the irregular occurrence of rain showers. When the rainfall failed, people would starve and die, which kept the population density in equilibrium with the low production capacity of the area. More recently, food aid from elsewhere during meagre years has caused an ever growing overpopulation in these regions.
One way to grow more crops in areas with insufficient rainfal is to import water. This can be done by tapping it from rivers carrying water from elsewhere. In recent times dams have been built in all parts of the world, to direct river water to irrigation canals and from there to agricultural fields. In that way agricultural production of a country or region can be increased considerably. Due to this there is already a strong competition for this water, particularly where the source rivers cross international boundaries. Within India many disputes have taken place between different states around the same river, but these could be settled peacefully with the help of the federal government.
In many situations also irrigation is not a durable system. If the amount of irrigation water directed to an area is too high in comparison with the natural drainage capacity of that area, waterlogging and salinity will occur on the long run. This has caused ancient civilisations in Mesopotamia, the Indus plains and other riverine areas to disappear and is now affecting many new irrigated areas in India, Pakistan and other countries.
If the rivers feeding the irrigation systems carry much silt, the artificial lakes at the damsites will silt up and loose their potential to store water for dry periods. This happens particularly where the natural vegetation is destroyed in overpopulated parts of the catchment areas of these rivers. In Northern India and South-east Asia, but also in other regions where rivers are fed mainly by the annual melting of glaciers, another danger is emerging. If these glaciers melt due to global warming, a constant and dependable supply of clear water to the rivers will disappear. Instead, there will be widespread flooding in the lowlands during rainy seasons and shortages of water during dry periods.
Large-scale irrigation projects have several ecological disadvantages too. The water reservoirs upstreams of the damsites often submerge hundreds of kilometers long stretches of beautiful and ecologically valuable riverine areas, harbouring prosperous villages of farmers and fishermen, monuments and even towns. This is the reason why the local inhabitants of the valley of the once mighty Armada river in India protested vehemently against the construction of a dam for irrigation purposes. In China the same destruction of landscapes and habitations is happening due to the construction of a "megadam" in the Yangtse Kiang River.
Downstreams of the damsites ecological disasters are occurring as well. Near Madurai in South-India houses have been built in the completely dry bed of the once beautiful Cauvery River, because a dam upstreams is diverting all the water to irrigation areas.
The introduction of modern irrigation is also not favourable for the original landscapes and their inhabitants. The original vegetation and cultivation patterns, following the natural variations of the landscapes, are replaced by linear irrigation canals and channels with high bunds around rectangular irrigated fields. The natural vegetation is often destroyed completely, to give way for agriculture, and the original local farmers generally loose their land and become agricultural labourers for the new land owners.
The increase of agricultural production by destructive methods should be stopped. Instead of constantly trying to increase the amount of food on our global table, it is time to stop increasing the number of guests at the table.
(24 November 2008)

22. Fish
Fish has always been a part of the human diet. Even in prehistoric times fishermen have been trying to catch fish in rivers, lakes and seas. Fishery could be carried out on a sustained basis as long as the world population consisted of small communities, but with the recent strong growth of the world population the fishing industry has been catching more fish than the seas can supply on a sustainable level. Moreover, industrialised fishing methods have become so aggressive that they destroy even the habitats of marine live and catch inedible species such as ray, shark, dolphin, seal and porpoise as discards.
As a result of these developments, some species of fish have become almost extinct. The populations of tuna and swordfish have decreased worldwide with as much as 90% and the availability of cod in the Northsea has been reduced in 50 years to far below its sustainable level, from 300,000 to 50,000 tons. The amount of salmon in seas and rivers has been reduced to one quarter of its original magnitude. Approximately one third of the edible fish species in the Northsea have been overfished. Amongst these species are, apart from those mentioned earlier, cod, eel, plaice, turbot, sole, whiting, seawolf and seadevil.
Fifteen years ago the European Community agreed that one quarter of the Northsea would be closed for fishing. Most governments have not yet earmarked the locations of these sea reserves. The Dutch minister of fisheries declared recentely that further studies are required for the selection of those areas. In the meantime European fishermen have been shifting their activities to the coasts of Africa, where they are destroying the natural fishing grounds of their African colleagues with their rough drag-nets.
It is clear that the European level of fish consumption can not be introduced in the whole world if the present high growth of the world population is continued.
(30 November 2008)

23. Space
At present almost half of the world population is living in towns. Particularly in the developing countries the big cities are growing fast. The new city dwellers are people from the countryside, in search of a better standard of living. This massive migration to the cities is caused mainly by the fact that the villages and farms offer insufficient job opportunities for the growing population. Due to the high population density, farms and small businesses are split up until they become too small for the maintenance of a family. Hence a part of the sons and daughters of the farmers and villagers have to try their luck elsewhere.
In the cities the new migrants settle in first instance in the improvised shelters of sprawling shanty-towns. Most of them manage to earn a meagre income as daily labourers and only the lucky few find a permanent job. The shanty-towns are still growing fast and this development will go on as long as the pulation growth continues.
Many poor people from the rural areas and shanty-towns in the poor countries try to migrate also to the rich nations. The wealthy countries try to stop them by all means, but some manage to get through the political and physical barriers.
In some countries the people in overpopulated rural regions migrate not only to the cities but also to other rural areas. An example of this is the so-called transmigration of Javanese people to other Indonesion islands, notably Sumatra, Kalimantan and West-Irian. This movement was initiated by the Indonesian government shortly after independence. In their new environment the migrants get the right to reclaim land for agricultural activities. Many square kilometers of forest were lost in this way and the transmigrations are still continuing.
In Brasil a simular movement is going on. People from the poor and overpopulated northern regions of that country migrate to the Amazone region. Along the newly built roads in the forests they reclaim small pieces of land for their own use. It is one of the developments leading to a gradual disappearance of the tropical forest in Brasil.
Overpopulation occurs in the economically developed world too, but there the cause is overproduction and overconsumption in combination with a high population density. Due to these conditions much land is used for industrial areas, roads, housing, recreation facilities and some nature reserves. The pressure on the land would be released there if a more sober lifestyle would be adopted. After all, unhappiness is more often caused by poverty or extreme wealth than by soberness. It is therefore reasonable to expect that the rich countries stop the growth of their economies.
(30 November 2008)

24. Nature
The growth of the world economy and the world population leads to a strong pressure on nature. Legal and illegal cutting of trees occurs on a large scale, particularly in Brasil, Indonesia, Kampuchia, Cameroun and Russia. In Argentina the cultivation of gentech soja for cattle fodder covered an area of 6,000,000 ha in 1995 and 14,200,000 ha in 2003. This means that an area the size of The Netherlands was deforested in a period of eight years. In Brasil even more tropical forests are disappearing, due to the cultivation of soja, the development of grazing land, the growth of sugarcane for the production of bio-fuel and the illegal settlement of migrants from the northern part of the country. In Indonesia transmigration, the illegal cutting of trees and the production of palm-oil are the main causes of the disappearance of forests. Approximately 50% of the tropical wood imported in the Netherlands is cut illegally.
The loss of natural landscapes, both on land and at sea, leads to a disappearance of plant and animal species too. According to the Living Planet Index, published by the World Wildlife Fund, there was a reduction in size by 27% on average of 4,000 populations of a few hundred land species of animals between 1970 and 2005. At sea there was a 28% decrease on average of the size of the populations of large fishes between 1995 and 2000.
The International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) presented durig its latest annual congres at Barcelona a report on the condition of 5,487 species of mammals. Half of the species is decreasing in the number of individuals and one quarter of the species is endangered. The Orang Utan belongs to the endangered mammals. It would be a disgrace for humanity if it would become responsible for the extinction in nature of one of its closest relatives.
(30 November 2008)

25. Basic instincts
The success of reproduction of an animal or plant species has always been determined by its ability to adapt to different circumstances. The ancestors of the human species could survive changes of the climate and other natural conditions when they learned how to use their hands for other purposes than climbing trees and picking fruit. Gradual changes in the brain made it possible to apply the use of hands for many different activities, such as the manufacturing and use of tools. Thanks to these abilities the human species became very successful in its reproduction. It could adapt to the most extreme climatic conditions and thus could spread to all corners of the world. Mankind could even create its own microclimate, as it was able to make clothes, build shelters and control fire. With their manupulative hands and manupulative brains humans could not only adapt to many different environments but also change the environments to their own requirements. No wonder that the urge to manipulate became one of the main basic instincts of the human species. It is one of the main causes of producerism.
The urge to consume is a characteristic of all animal species. Food was always consumed in big quantities when it was available. Apart from physical effects on the body, a safe supply of food had important psychological and social consequences for individuals of animals living in groups. Well-fed individuals were strong and could attain power and self-confidence. With their strong bodies they could impress and control the other animals in the community and thus could become leaders. Humans attain self-esteem and power also by the possession of non-edible commodities such as clothes, big cars and houses, ornaments and money. This is the cause of consumerism. In fact money has become the most important commodity in this respect, because with money one can buy not only all the other material things but also such immaterial matters as security, comfort, respect, power and sex.
In the beginning all these activities could be carried out on a sustainable basis. Even agriculture and animal husbandry were not really harmful for the environment, as there was enough space left for the conservation of natural resources and the survival of animal and plant species. Problems arose when the human population started growing explosively and the production of consumption goods was taken up on an industrial basis. In the preceding parts of this blog these problems were described in some details. Energy, water, minerals, nature and space are becoming scarce commodities and the conditions in the atmosphere, on the land and in the seas are changing at a harmful and frightening rate.
The present worldwide credit crisis may force the human population to reduce production and consumption temporarily, but it is clear that great efforts are being made to resume economic growth as soon as possible. It seems psychologically impossible for humans to reduce their production and consumption activities to an acceptable level. Therefore, the most important contribution to a sound future of mankind may be to stop the growth of the world population. This will be difficult to achieve too, as the reproduction instinct is enshrined in the human mind as a natural right. People in power have always used this human urge for their own purposes. Worldly leaders needed soldiers for their armies and spiritual leaders wanted large crowds of followers. Even now the roman-catholic church and other religious institutions are opposing the use of family planning.
Humans have always boasted that they are the only rational, reasonable and ethically motivated creatures on this earth. These faculties should be used now to control the basic instincts for production, consumption and reproduction. Let us stop growth now, in the interest of our descendants and to save the beauty of our world.
(16 December 2008)